Wilbur Wright is quoted as saying, “I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for 50 years.” Two years later, ‘man’ was not only flying, but it was these very men who achieved the feat. 6 The history of flight includes a striking example of such failure. Experts in a particular technology are not necessarily experts in making predictions about the future of that technology.Įxperts in many fields do not have a good track record in making forecasts about their own field, as researchers including Barbara Mellers, Phil Tetlock, and others have shown. And many believe that it will be developed within the next few decades.Īs highlighted in the annotations, half of the experts gave a date before 2061, and 90% gave a date within the next 100 years.Įxpert surveys are one piece of information to consider when we think about the future of AI, but we should not overstate the results of these surveys. Some think that it’s possible, but it will take a long time. A few believe that this level of technology will never be developed. The fact that there are such large differences in answers makes it clear that experts do not agree on how long it will take until such a system might be developed. 4Įach vertical line in this chart represents the answer of one expert. More information about the study can be found in the fold-out box at the end of this text. 3 Human-level AI was defined as unaided machines being able to accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. 2Įxperts were asked when they believe there is a 50% chance that human-level AI exists. This is from the most recent study by Katja Grace and her colleagues, conducted in the summer of 2022. The chart shows the answers of 352 experts. Such expert surveys are one of the pieces of information that we can rely on to form an idea of what the future of AI might look like. In recent years, several research teams contacted AI experts and asked them about their expectations for the future of machine intelligence. It would be able to do the work of a translator, a doctor, an illustrator, a teacher, a therapist, a driver, or the work of an investor. It would be able to choose actions that allow the machine to achieve its goals and then carry out those actions. It would be a machine that is “able to learn to do anything that a human can do”, as Norvig and Russell put it in their textbook on AI. What do experts in the field of AI research think about such scenarios? Do they dismiss these ideas as fantasy, or are they taking such prospects seriously?Ī human-level AI would be a machine, or a network of machines, capable of carrying out the same range of tasks that we humans are capable of. Artificial intelligence (AI) that surpasses our own intelligence sounds like the stuff from science-fiction books or films.
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